Market Meltdown Today?


No.  It wasn't a good day, but it wasn't a meltdown or crash.
  The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 777 points today or about 7%.  The news media will sensationalize this fact to sell newspapers, magazines and airtime, but it isn't really that bad.

"Isn't really that bad . . . ?"  You may be wondering why I could say that so casually.  The fact is today wasn't as bad as October 19, 1987.  Black Monday was a crash-- only 508 points, but nearly 23% of the value lost in one day.  I worked on a Wall Street trading desk that day-- it was bad.  The Quotron machines were running four hours behind-- meaning a market order quote was based on information four hours old-- you didn't know what you would get as an executed price.  It was bad.

When it comes to the stock market, the key is to measure the percentage change not the point change. 

The fact is I saw chart today that pointed out that over the last 74 years there have been only 12 down years for stocks and the average return during that 74 year period was better than 12%.

The morale of the story is threefold:

  1. Pay no attention to the news media when it comes to financial markets
  2. Pay attention to the percentage changes in market indices
  3. Unless you are a day trader, don't panic-- think long-term

While it isn't good, the sky isn't falling.

 

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